IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

41

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index measures Americans' opinions and outlooks on the economy. The index is based on a nationwide survey of 900 adults and evaluates six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, confidence in federal economic policies. Reading above 50 indicates optimism, and below 50 indicates pessimism.

Redbook YoY

The Johnson Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales are sales in stores continuously open for 12 months or longer. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent 'official' retail sales series collected and published by the US Department of Commerce. Redbook compiles the Index by collecting and interpreting performance estimates from retailers. The Index and its sub-groups are sales-weighted aggregates of these estimates. Weeks are retail weeks (Sunday to Saturday), and equally weighted within the month.

Core Inflation Rate YoY

6.4%

In the United States, the core inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods which excludes volatile food and fuel costs.

Inflation Rate YoY

7.9%

In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: food (14 percent of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4 percent) and services less energy services (57.3 percent). The last category is divided by: shelter (32.1 percent), medical care services (5.8 percent) and transportation services (5.5 percent).

Inflation Rate MoM

0.8%

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

Core Inflation Rate MoM

0.5%

In the United States, the core consumer price index tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods which excludes volatile food and fuel costs.

Industrial Production YoY

1.3%

In India, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 78 percent of total production. The biggest segments within Manufacturing are: basic metals (13 percent of total production); coke and refined petroleum products (12 percent); chemicals and chemical products (8 percent); food products (5 percent); pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products (5 percent); motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (5 percent); machinery and equipment n.e.c. (5 percent); other non-metallic mineral products (4 percent); and textiles, electrical equipment and fabricated metal products (3 percent each). Mining accounts for 14 percent of total output; and electricity accounts for 8 percent.

Manufacturing Production YoY

1.1%

Manufacturing production measures the output of businesses operating in the manufacturing sector. In India, manufacturing accounts for 78 percent of total industrial output. The biggest segments are: basic metals (13 percent of total production); coke and refined petroleum products (12 percent); chemicals and chemical products (8 percent); food products (5 percent); pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products (5 percent); motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (5 percent); machinery and equipment n.e.c. (5 percent); other non-metallic mineral products (4 percent); and textiles, electrical equipment and fabricated metal products (3 percent each).

Inflation Rate YoY

6.07%

In India, the most important category in the consumer price index is Food and beverages (45.86 percent of total weight), of which Cereals and products (9.67 percent), Milk and products (6.61 percent), Vegetables (6.04 percent), Prepared meals, snacks, sweets, etc. (5.55 percent), Meat and fish (3.61 percent), and Oils and fats (3.56 percent). Miscellaneous accounts for 28.32 percent, of which Transport and communication (8.59 percent), health (5.89 percent), and education (4.46 percent). Housing accounts for 10.07 percent; Fuel and light for 6.84 percent; Clothing and footwear for 6.53 percent; and Pan, tobacco and intoxicants for 2.38 percent. Consumer price changes in India can be very volatile due to dependence on energy imports, the uncertain impact of monsoon rains on its large farm sector, difficulties transporting food items to market because of its poor roads and infrastructure and high fiscal deficit. In 2013, the consumer price index replaced the wholesale price index (WPI) as a main measure of inflation.

Inflation Rate MoM

0.24%

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

NFIB Business Optimism Index

95.7

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components calculated based on the answers of around 620 NFIB members. This questions include: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.

2-Year Schatz Auction

12-Month BOT Auction

-0.436%

ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

-39.3

In Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index measures the level of optimism that analysts have about the expected economic developments over the next 6 months. The survey covers up to 350 financial and economic analysts. The index is constructed as the difference between the percentage share of analysts that are optimistic and the percentage of analysts that are pessimistic about the development of the economy. Therefore, the ZEW indicator measures the confidence on a scale of -100 (all analysts expect the economy to deteriorate) up to 100 (all analysts expect it to improve). A 0 value indicates neutrality.

ZEW Current Conditions

-21.4

In Germany, the ZEW Current Conditions Index measures the level of optimism that analysts have about the current economic situation. The survey covers up to 350 financial and economic analysts. The index is constructed as the difference between the percentage share of analysts that are optimistic and the percentage of analysts that are pessimistic about the economy. Therefore, the ZEW indicator measures the confidence on a scale of -100 (all analysts see deteriorating economic conditions) up to 100 (all analysts see improving economic conditions). A 0 value indicates neutrality.

ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

-38.7

In the Euro Area, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index measures the level of optimism that analysts have about the expected economic developments over the next 6 months. The survey covers up to 350 financial and economic analysts. The index is constructed as the difference between the percentage share of analysts that are optimistic and the percentage of analysts that are pessimistic about the development of the economy. Therefore, the ZEW indicator measures the confidence on a scale of -100 (all analysts expect the economy to deteriorate) up to 100 (all analysts expect it to improve). A 0 value indicates neutrality.

Outstanding Loan Growth YoY

11.4%

In China, outstanding loan growth refers to year over year change in total amount of loans in domestic currency provided by the financial institutions. It includes off-balance sheet forms of financing that exist outside the conventional bank lending system, such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies and bond sales.

M2 Money Supply YoY

9.2%

China Money Supply M2 includes M1 plus short-term time deposits in banks.

New Yuan Loans

1230000000000

In China, new yuan loans refer to financial institutions Renminbi credit funds balance sheet. They represent more than four-fifths of all loans.

Total Social Financing

1190000000000

In China, loans to private sector refer to total social financing, that is, the volume of financing provided by the financial system to the real economy (domestic non-financial enterprises and households) during a certain period of time. Total social financing is a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy as it includes off-balance sheet forms of financing such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies and bond sales.

Inflation Rate MoM

0.58%

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

Industrial Production YoY

7.6%

In Turkey, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 84 percent of total production. The biggest segments within Manufacturing are: Food products (16 percent of total production); basic metals (11 percent); motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (9 percent); textile (8 percent); other non-metallic mineral products (6 percent); rubber and plastic products (5 percent); chemicals and chemical products (5 percent); electrical equipment (5 percent); wearing apparel (5 percent); and fabricated metal products (5 percent).

Industrial Production MoM

In Turkey, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 84 percent of total production. The biggest segments within Manufacturing are: Food products (16 percent of total production); basic metals (11 percent); motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (9 percent); textile (8 percent); other non-metallic mineral products (6 percent); rubber and plastic products (5 percent); chemicals and chemical products (5 percent); electrical equipment (5 percent); wearing apparel (5 percent); and fabricated metal products (5 percent).

Retail Sales MoM

In Turkey, the Retail sales report provides an aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a specific time period. In Turkey, Retail sales are seasonal, volatile and relatively important to the overall economy.

Retail Sales YoY

7.9%

In Turkey, the year-over-year change in Retail sales compares the aggregated sales of retail goods and services during a certain month to the same month a year ago.

Balance of Trade

-8030000000

Since 2004, France has been recording trade deficits due the gradual erosion of the export-oriented industry, the appreciation of the euro and the increasing dependency on imports of energy and manufactured products. In 2017, the biggest trade deficits were recorded with: China & Hong Kong, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Belgium; while the biggest trade surpluses were recorded with: the Middle East, the UK, Africa and Switzerland.

Inflation Rate MoM Final

In Germany, the most important categories in the consumer price index are Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (32 percent of the total weight), Transport (13 percent), Recreation, entertainment & culture (11 percent) and Food & non-alcoholic beverages (10 percent). The index also includes Miscellaneous goods & services (7 percent), Furniture, lighting equipment, appliances & other household equipment (5 percent), Restaurant & accommodation services (5 percent), Health (5 percent) and Clothing & footwear (5 percent). The remaining 7 percent of the index is composed by Alcoholic beverages & tobacco, Communication and Education.

Inflation Rate YoY Final

In Germany, the most important categories in the consumer price index are Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (32 percent of the total weight), Transport (13 percent), Recreation, entertainment & culture (11 percent) and Food & non-alcoholic beverages (10 percent). The index also includes Miscellaneous goods & services (7 percent), Furniture, lighting equipment, appliances & other household equipment (5 percent), Restaurant & accommodation services (5 percent), Health (5 percent) and Clothing & footwear (5 percent). The remaining 7 percent of the index is composed by Alcoholic beverages & tobacco, Communication and Education.

Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Final

Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is an indicator of inflation and price stability for the European Central Bank (ECB). The HICP is compiled by Eurostat and the national statistical institutes in accordance with harmonised statistical methods. The ECB aims to maintain annual inflation rates as measured by the HICP below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Unemployment Rate

3.9%

In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.

Claimant Count Change

-48100

Claimant count in the United Kingdom measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits.

Average Earnings incl. Bonus

4.8%

In the United Kingdom, wage growth refers to changes in average weekly earnings, before tax and other deductions and including bonuses.

Employment Change

-12000

In the United Kingdom, employment change refers to the 3-month moving average compared to the previous period in the number of people in employment aged 16 and over.

Average Earnings excl. Bonus

3.8%

In the United Kingdom, wage growth refers to changes in average weekly earnings, before tax and other deductions and including bonuses.

Machine Tool Orders YoY

31.6%

Machine Tool Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers.

Inflation Rate YoY

8.53%

In Romania, the inflation rate measures a broad rise or fall in prices that consumers pay for a standard basket of goods.

Current Account

100000000

Current Account is the sum of the balance of trade (exports minus imports of goods and services), net factor income (such as interest and dividends) and net transfer payments (such as foreign aid).

Westpac Consumer Confidence Index

The Consumer Sentiment Index is based on a survey of over 1,200 Australian households. The Index is an average of five component indexes which reflect consumers' evaluations of their household financial situation over the past year and the coming year, anticipated economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years, and buying conditions for major household items. The index scores above 100 indicate that optimists outweigh pessimists.

Westpac Consumer Confidence Change

The Consumer Sentiment Index is based on a survey of over 1,200 Australian households. The Index is an average of five component indexes which reflect consumers' evaluations of their household financial situation over the past year and the coming year, anticipated economic conditions over the coming year and the next five years, and buying conditions for major household items. The index scores above 100 indicate that optimists outweigh pessimists.

Bank Lending YoY

0.4%

In Japan, bank lending refers to the year-on-year change of all outstanding loans and discounts with banks and shinkin banks. Lending increases with increased business confidence and investment and it is an important indicator for the Japanese economy because of the weakness that has plagued the Japanese banking sector.

PPI YoY

9.3%

Producer prices change refers to year over year change in price of goods and services sold by manufacturers and producers in the wholesale market during a given period.

PPI MoM

0.8%

In Japan, the Producer Price Inflation MoM measures a month-over-month change in the price of goods and services sold by manufacturers and producers in the wholesale market.

BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY

2.7%

The BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor measures changes in the actual value of retail sales from a sample of retailers. The Monitor measures the value of spending and hence does not adjust for price changes. If prices are rising, sales volumes will increase by less than sales values. In times of price deflation, sales volumes will increase by more than sales values. Retailers report the value of their sales and sales in the equivalent week a year ago. These figures are reported both in total and on a ‘like-for-like’ basis. The percentage increase in the value of sales on a ‘like-for-like’ basis removes the effect of the expansion of retail floor space by the retailers concerned on their sales total. Due to the sample being biased towards large retailers, the ‘like-for-like’ increase usually provides a more accurate guide to general spending patterns, though it will be biased downwards as an estimate of the growth rate for retail as a whole.

Visitor Arrivals YoY

-26%

In New Zealand, visitor arrivals measure the total number of overseas visitors which intended length of stay is less than 12 months.

ECB McCaul Speech

In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability which is to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, ECB may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes. The official interest rate is the Main refinancing operations rate. .

3-Year Note Auction

1.775%

Fed Evans Speech

In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.